Dong Feng 21D – A 19 Year Old Missile Worries Reporter
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The USS George Washington supercarrier recently deployed off North Korea has a news reporter on board that sends off alarming reports about a supposedly dangerous missile. The only thing wrong with this: Said Missile was first deployed 19 years ago. I sincerely doubt that missile development in China is so far advanced that a 19 year old missile can really scare anybody. The said news piece is circulated by AP and was for example published by Yahoo. Looks like it’s that summer time again, where all kinds of weird “news” stories circulate because nothing is really happening or this is an attempt to increase the military budget. With the withdrawal of troops and equipment from the war in Iraq, some companies that make their living with war machinery see the need for making some additional noise. While it is true that China has a quite impressive military, it is also true that Chine is silently conquering the west by other means: business. China has a finance power that can crush the U.S. economy within a few weeks. Why should they engage in saber rattling? The Dong-Feng 21 (DF-21; NATO reporting name CSS-5 – Dong-Feng literally means “East Wind”) is a two-stage, solid-propellant, single-warhead medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) developed by China Changfeng Mechanics and Electronics Technology Academy. Development started in the late 1960s, and was completed around 1985-86 but was not deployed until 1991. It was developed from the JL-1 missile launched from submarines and is China’s first solid-fuel land-based missile. The U.S. Department of Defense estimates that China has 60-80 missiles, and 60 launchers. Originally developed for strategic purposes, the DF-21′s later variants were designed for both nuclear and conventional missions. As well as a nuclear warhead of around 300kt, it is thought that high explosive, submunition and chemical warheads are also available. The latest DF-21D was said to be the world’s first and only anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). The DF-21 has also been developed into space launcher and anti-satellite/anti-missile weapon carrier. |
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A weapon that is 19 years old can’t be state of the art? The list of “old” weapons still in front line use is rather long. The US B52 bomber is nearly 60 years old with third generation pilots flying it. The SR71 was nearly 30 years old and broke speed records upon its retirement. The F14 was also 30 years old. Find a modern transport aircraft that doesn’t look like the c130 Hercules which is also still flying.
Oh and the USS Enterprise aircraft carrier these missles are designed to sink has been in service over 50 years…
That missle is bad news…the fact that it is on a proven launch platform only makes it a more viable threat. The electronics? Probably the best they could steal from Japan.
That article was preposterous. Accuracy is only a third of the equation. The other two-thirds are saturating the AEGIS defenses of a carrier group, and /finding/ the carrier group in the first place.
Finding the carrier group is difficult enough – recon satellites are on set schedules in their orbits and easily avoided by a carrier group sailing at 30+ knots. Recon planes have to radiate in order to find the carrier group, and if they radiate, they can be easily intercepted before catching the carrier group’s scent.
The saturation issue is completely ignored by the AP article. China’s new missile is much more difficult to field in number than the equivalent monetary value in cruise-missile armed Backfires. It doesn’t matter if you can pick which square inch of the deck to hit, but rather how many missiles you can get past the AEGIS and CIWS systems, and that is completely reliant on saturation.
The DoD estimates that the Chinese have 60 launchers and 80 missiles, and while 60 missiles in the air might seem like a lot, the average carrier group has multiple AEGIS-equipped ships, which, if recent developments to the SM-3 have anything to say, is probably enough to deal with even that large a salvo (which would still be a nightmare to endure, but certainly not a golden bullet).
It’s a threat to keep an eye on, but not one to panic over.
Also: good move by AP to quote the Chinese news about the Chinese military. {/sarcasm}
~ Ferrard
Article fails to mention the real fear of the DF-21, its recently modified advanced accuracy, the US Navy now acknowledges Chinas ability to hit an AirCraft carrier from 3000 miles with a conventional warhead travelling at high-hypersonic speeds. Such technology renders any large ship useless, carriers can no longer feel safe in their battle groups removing the US threat to China.
knowing where the carriers are doesn’t have to depend on satellites and airplanes. it can also be done by tracking submarines. recently a chicom sub surfaced, just for fun, within sight of a U.S. carrier scaring the bejesus out of them. in a combat situation, that would have been a kill.
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